The Value Of Power

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The author of this article had the chance once to visit a nuclear reactor once. You walk above the pool of water that holds the fission material. You look down and see a color that is compared to nothing else in the outside world. The dark blue light is called Cherenkov radiation. It is generated by neutrons that slow down in water. People, who look at it have a lifelong experience of Physics: Pure Power.

Probably the story of the 2020s will primarily talk about power. We have electric cars spreading all around the world. The financing that used to cover ships, wells, and gas stations not long ago is now split between fossil fuels and electric charging grids. Rising interest rates are partly reflecting this rising demand.

There are multiple aspects of the industry. The world has an increasing population. Air quality was seriously health threatening, notably in China. It is not a surprise that the vast Chinese cities introduce electric cars in masses.

Governments spent huge amounts of money on R&D and subsidies. This is welcome first. However, when the lump sum payments need to pay off later, they increase prices for a long time. Technology remains expensive that deters competition.

Nuclear energy is still a classic solution. However, as long as these reactors require more than half a meter thick concrete and metal shielding, they are not considered safe by the average citizen. There are some vendors experimenting with small bathtub sized reactors. Licensing and regulation will be slow.

Moreover, the spot price of electricity does not change when gas plants are replaced with cheaper nuclear option. This is even true in liberalized EU markets, since there is just one monopolistic grid that supplies the electricity.

The best option is to increase the supply with other options. Fossil fuels have existing equipment, and they do not require R&D. They will probably be the short term competition for a long time. Gas power stations can be shut down and turned back on faster than other sources.

Electric cars powered by the grid are very lucrative, especially in large Asian cities. The initial investment pays off fast. Forcing full electrification with regulators should be cautious. The initial gains of electric cars in big cities may face huge costs to power remote villages. The unit price would quickly suffer, if government utilities are pushed to cover rural areas.

Part of the Tech meltdown can be derived back to financing. Electrification becomes more building and less development and research. This scales well, sucking in the financing leaving less to self-driving research and AI. The urge to sell ChatGPT to Microsoft is a notable example. Still, these technologies rely on copying empirical knowledge. Much real world equipment requires mathematical proofs to control energy and power.

Truck and train traffic will probably fill the gap in investment. Ramping up is easy, they can provide quick fixes of shortages, and they can be used in case of disasters and wars that damage the infrastructure. How will power be distributed? It will probably be an efficient mix of batteries, hydrogen, or other technologies.

Nuclear research needs to improve as well. Existing technologies inherited “the bigger the better” approach of Cold War superpowers. A distributed controlled fission plant similar to the wick spread in a line may make this technology safer. Enriching Uranium also leaves back less reactive lighter isotopes. Reactors where an occasional meltdown melts the material into it’s less reactive metal dissolving well may eventually become safer. Look at the stone bridges and aqueducts remaining in Italy and Gallia Narbobensis from the Ancient times. They are lasting, but we invented so many better bridge building techniques since then.

Hopefully we will have the abundance of energy by the end of the decade, and also the choice that makes it affordable to focus on other matters.